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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|